Original research
The Missing In-Service Event: Why VA Claims Get Denied
An analysis of 714,350 service-connection denials from the Board of Veterans' Appeals. In 88.5% of them the record showed which of the three basic elements the Board found missing; currently no in-service event is the most common, at 42.6%.
How this research is built: every Board of Veterans' Appeals decision published by VA is public, and anyone can read one at a time. RateMyVSO downloads and analyzes the complete published record, classifying which element, current diagnosis, in-service event, or medical nexus, the Board found missing in each denial, using a mix of automated text analysis and targeted AI review for the harder cases. The result is one of the largest structured research datasets built from the published Board record. It updates automatically every week as new decisions publish.
The single most common reason claims are denied
To be service connected, a claim generally needs three things: a current diagnosed condition, an in-service event or exposure, and a medical nexus, the doctor's opinion connecting the two. When the Board denies on service connection, we can read which element it found missing. Across 631,975 classified denials, here is how often each element was the one that fell short:
What the presence of a nexus opinion looks like at the Board
The same corpus shows the flip side. Grouping decisions by who wrote the medical opinion in the file, the grant rate rises sharply when a private opinion is present:
Denial reasons by condition
The fifteen conditions with the most service-connection denials, and how often each denial turned on a missing nexus versus a missing diagnosis or in-service event:
| Condition | SC denials | Missing nexus | No diagnosis | No in-service |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hearing loss DC 6100 | 55,262 | 27.8% | 47.9% | 24.3% |
| Degenerative arthritis, other than post-traumatic DC 5003 | 35,157 | 22.4% | 24.5% | 53.1% |
| Posttraumatic stress disorder DC 9411 | 34,720 | 7.6% | 51.9% | 40.5% |
| Tinnitus, recurrent DC 6260 | 23,444 | 40.7% | 19.3% | 40% |
| Hypertensive vascular disease DC 7101 | 22,892 | 20% | 12% | 68% |
| Lumbosacral or cervical strain DC 5237 | 22,843 | 21.5% | 32.4% | 46.2% |
| Intervertebral disc syndrome DC 5243 | 21,582 | 31.7% | 5.5% | 62.8% |
| Sleep Apnea Syndromes DC 6847 | 17,327 | 26% | 24.4% | 49.5% |
| Paralysis of sciatic nerve DC 8520 | 15,513 | 18.8% | 41.9% | 39.3% |
| Diabetes mellitus DC 7913 | 14,914 | 11.6% | 14.5% | 73.9% |
| Major depressive disorder DC 9434 | 13,304 | 23% | 29.4% | 47.6% |
| Knee, other impairment of DC 5257 | 11,344 | 24.1% | 35% | 40.9% |
| Ankle, limited motion of DC 5271 | 10,484 | 16.8% | 52.7% | 30.4% |
| Migraine DC 8100 | 10,412 | 22.5% | 33% | 44.5% |
| Arteriosclerotic heart disease DC 7005 | 9,876 | 18.9% | 31.2% | 49.9% |
Methodology
This report aggregates published decisions of the Board of Veterans' Appeals. Each service-connection denial is classified by which of the three elements of service connection (current diagnosis, in-service event, medical nexus) the Board identified as missing, using the language of the decision. Increased-rating, effective-date, and other non-service-connection denials are outside this three-element test and are not counted here. Of 714,350 service-connection denials, 631,975 (88.5%) carried enough language to classify. The grant-rate figures group decisions by the source of the medical opinion in the file. Data as of September 2026; the underlying figures refresh weekly.
Cite this research
RateMyVSO. (September 2026). The Missing In-Service Event: An Analysis of 714,350 Board of Veterans' Appeals Denials. https://ratemyvso.net/dc/denial-reasons-report
Free to cite and link with attribution. Figures derived from published Board of Veterans' Appeals decisions.
Educational and encyclopedic only, not legal advice, and not a prediction of any individual claim. Figures describe patterns in published Board decisions. For help with a claim, find a VA-accredited representative.